Simantic

Trend Watching

Tristan 1st June 2010

No, I’m not writing about those other seer-like trend watchers, I’m writing about Google Trends.

I’d known about Google Hot Trends for a while, but never found it that fascinating. What I do find fascinating is Google Trends. Google Trends allows you to search a database of search-terms people have put into Google between 2004 and 2010. I thought I’d have a play and post some results.

Search term: Apple (blue line), Microsoft (red line)

As shown above, searches for Microsoft have been steadily declining since 2004, with searches for Apple steadily increasing. I wonder if there is a correlation with market capitalisation?

Search term: iPhone (blue), iPad (red), Android (orange)
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For my next search, I thought I’d try the iPhone, iPad and Android to see how they’re going.

As is to be expected, the iPhone has the early movers advantage, having been released in June 2007. It’s interesting to note that the ’social buzz’ for the iPhone appears to have begun 6 months prior to launch, around December 2006. We can also see a significant spike in searches corresponding with subsequent releases of the iPhone 3G in July 2008 and the IPhone 3GS in June 2009. You’ll notice too that the trend takes a staircase like pattern (my term), jumping up each year, rather than being linear.

In 2007 and 2008, Android arrives on the scene, to little fanfare, much like somebody arriving late to a party and being too cool (or nervous) to announce their presence. 2009 marks the year when Android becomes more well known with handsets powered by Android starting to hit the market, the first of which was the HTC Dream. In 2010, the Android appears to be trending upward at a fast rate and well on it’s way to catching up with the iPhone, although another ’step up’ come July – and the release of the new iPhone – and “Android” may still be a way behind “iPhone”.

As for the iPad, it’s still the early days but Apple’s media magic seems to be working, with a huge spike in searches for “iPad” at the start of 2010 and another smaller spike occurring recently with the launch of the iPad.

Conclusions
Since i’ve written this much, I thought i’d put in some closing remarks.

Firstly, Google Trends is fun, although aspects of it require further work, such as the data displayed below the chart (not shown in this post) listing Regions, Cities and Languages. The bars look good but there is no scale or index like the chart. Anyway, have a go yourself and comment on any interesting comparisons you come across.

As for the results of my searches above, I’m particularly intrigued by the second chart. We all know that Apple are masters of media and ‘buzz’; and this shows in the chart. A familiar pattern seems to be that they ’seed’ some information about six months prior to launch using events such as MacWorld. They then get huge amounts of exposure at the actual launch. I don’t know how much of this is paid as opposed to general excitement, but here in Australia, the iPad seems to be on every breakfast/lunch/evening show on TV!

As for Android, it’s clear here that nobody is steering the ship in the same way as at Apple, however, as part of the Open Handset Alliance and with over 40 phones already using Android, as well as over 10 tablets, a few ereaders – and who knows what else – the future is surely bright for this one.

Entry Filed under: general